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What process(es) do you recommend for collecting F/X (Foreign Exchange) cash flow forecasts internal to one's own company? (Webinar Attendee Question)

This question was asked during the Proformative webinar "Key Elements of a Successful Hedge Program."  A video of the webinar can be viewed here: https://www.proformative.com/resources/webinar-video-key-elements-successful-hedge-program

Answers

Topic Expert
Philippe Gelis
Title: CEO
Company: Kantox
LinkedIn Profile
(CEO, Kantox) |

Hi Kurt,

I always recommend to use automated process, no spreadsheets. It is quicker and reduce the risk of errors.

You can use specific softwares, like FireApps or Reval, connected to your treasury software and TMS. If you do not have any treasury management software, you should buy one.

Regards

Topic Expert
Helen Kane
Title: President
Company: Hedge Trackers, LLC
(President, Hedge Trackers, LLC) |

I am unclear if you are asking about the collection of actual currency flows for the settling of hedge contracts or if you are asking about the anticipated transactions that would qualify for special “cash flow hedge accounting” under ASC815. For cash flows the process would be very similar to the cash planning and forecasting that is prepared for USD. Information is available through ERP reporting (where available) or can be collected by software or spreadsheet processes. Should the estimated timing of cash flows be incorrect, the banking community offers a currency swap transaction that allows you to roll the contract forward or back to meet the actual timing of the transactions. I am not a big fan, but the banks also offer window forwards which give you flexibility offering a period rather than a date of exchange.

For capturing the anticipated transactions I recommend working closely with the FP&A organization. Unfortunately, they frequently ask for and process their forecast information in USD, totally losing sight of the underlying currency. If this is the case you need to educate them on how their forecast accuracy can be improved by asking the global organization to forecast in the currency the transactions will be based in. Then FPA must use updated rates to consolidate that information. This gives the FPA function the ability to quickly and easily respond to management inquiries on how does a 10 cent drop in the EUR impact the rest of this quarter, and the rest of the year--an impact that could be moderated by having a hedge program in place. It is crucial that the FP&A group know the rates and values protected by a hedge program to accurately project earnings

Jono Tunney
Title: Director
Company: Atlas Risk Advisory LTD
(Director, Atlas Risk Advisory LTD) |

I'm not sure if this is the question you are asking but the subject of local currency forecast v. USD (i.e. 'CLC' - converted local currency) forecasts is a very interesting one. One would think the local currency forecasts / targeting are 'bullet proof' as compared to CLC because as Helen mentions above, and CLC number will have almost always have some error in it if the FX rates move... (100 EUR at 1.40 will be 140 CLC but at 1.20 will only thus be 120 CLC - so on the surface it seems far more accurate to utilize a 100 EUR forecast).

However, it is very interesting to observe the 'slippage' in local currency forecasts due to competitive dynamics. For example, we would often observe local currency price decreases that were more aggressive in a environment of local currency strength. (if the EUR moves to 1.4, that 100 EUR in revenue you were expecting actually only materialized into 95 EUR due to price cuts).

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